AWARD OUTCOME
What happened
Natural England awarded a research-services contract to Government Actuary's Department to quantify how nature recovery could affect selected nature-related risks in the National Risk Register, informed by the State of Natural Capital Report.
Published outcomeThe published contract record identifies Government Actuary's Department as the sole supplier for lot 1. The contract is marked active, was signed on 30 September 2026, and runs from 13 October 2026 to 31 March 2027.
Market significanceThis is a below-threshold, open-competition public-sector evidence commission with a published net contract value of £41,139 and gross value of £49,366.80.
AWARDED SUPPLIERS AND LOTS
1 supplier record analysed
Government Actuary's Department
99% confidenceAward 1 · Lots 1 · £41,139 net; £49,366.80 gross GBP · Active contract
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Award 1 names Government Actuary's Department as supplier and is linked to contract 1. Contract 1 gives values of £41,139 (amount) and £49,366.80 (amountGross).
LIFECYCLE
Award or contract stage
Procurement status
99% confidenceComplete
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The tender status is "complete".
Award status
99% confidenceActive
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Award 1 is recorded with status "active".
Contract status
99% confidenceActive
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Contract 1 is recorded with status "active".
Contract signature
99% confidenceSigned 30 September 2026
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Contract 1 contains dateSigned: 2026-09-30.
Contract period
99% confidence13 October 2026 to 31 March 2027
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Contract 1 period gives startDate 2026-10-13 and endDate 2027-03-31.
VALUES
Published values explained
Contract value, excluding VAT
99% confidence£41,139
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Contract 1 value.amount is 41139 GBP.
Contract value, including VAT
99% confidence£49,366.80
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Contract 1 value.amountGross is 49366.8 GBP.
Opportunity value shown in source summary
90% confidenceUp to £41,250
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The supplied opportunity summary gives value_max of 41250 GBP; no value basis is supplied there.
TIMELINE
Procurement timeline
Tender notice first published
98% confidence29 July 2026
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Release history records tender notices on 29 July 2026.
Submission deadline
99% confidence4 September 2026, 17:00 BST
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The process field submission_deadline is 2026-09-04T17:00:00+01:00.
Contract signed
99% confidence30 September 2026
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Contract 1 dateSigned is 2026-09-30.
Contract start
99% confidence13 October 2026
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Contract 1 period.startDate is 2026-10-13.
Contract end
99% confidence31 March 2027
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Contract 1 period.endDate is 2027-03-31.
Contract details notice published
99% confidence20 October 2026
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Contract document 098790-2026 has datePublished 2026-10-20.
SCOPE
What was awarded
Requirement
96% confidenceResearch to quantify how nature recovery may mitigate expected increases in the likelihood and impacts of selected nature-related National Risk Register risks.
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The description states that the project extends State of Natural Capital Report work into quantification through reference to seven National Risk Register risks and considers nature recovery's potential to mitigate expected increases in likelihood and impacts.
Service classification
99% confidenceResearch services (CPV 73110000)
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The awarded item lists additional classification CPV 73110000, described as Research services.
Lot structure
99% confidenceOne published lot (lot 1)
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Tender data lists lot 1 only; award 1 and contract 1 are linked to it.
Delivery geography
98% confidenceUnited Kingdom
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The awarded item delivery address specifies region UK and country GB.
PROCEDURE
Procedure and competition
Procurement method
99% confidenceOpen
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Tender procurementMethod is "open".
Procedure detail
99% confidenceBelow threshold - open competition
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Tender procurementMethodDetails is "Below threshold - open competition".
Threshold status
99% confidenceBelow threshold
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Contract 1 states aboveThreshold: false.
Competition results
99% confidenceNumber of tenders and evaluation results unknown
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Information not supplied in the published notice data.
CONTRACT TERMS
Published contract terms
Contract duration
98% confidenceApproximately 5 months and 19 days
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Calculated from the explicit period of 13 October 2026 to 31 March 2027.
Extension or options
99% confidenceUnknown
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Information not supplied in the published notice data.
Pricing basis
99% confidencePublished net and gross totals; pricing schedule unknown
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Contract 1 provides amount and amountGross but no rate card, milestones or price breakdown.
COMMERCIAL VIEW
Commercial observations
Awarded commercial position
94% confidenceThe published net contract value (£41,139) is £111 below the £41,250 maximum shown in the supplied opportunity summary.
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The opportunity summary gives value_max £41,250; contract 1 gives a net amount of £41,139.
Market route
99% confidenceThe requirement was competed through an open, below-threshold procedure.
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Tender data states procurementMethod "open" and procurementMethodDetails "Below threshold - open competition".
Award rationale
99% confidenceUnknown
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No bid scoring, tenderer count, evaluation narrative or award rationale is supplied.
DATA QUALITY
Gaps and source limitations
Published contract evidence
98% confidenceStrong
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The source contains an active contract record, explicit signature date, contract period, net and gross values, supplier, award and lot linkage.
Supplier identity treatment
98% confidenceGovernment Actuary's Department is a published public-body supplier name; company verification is not applicable.
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Supplier verification status is "not_applicable" and the source identifies the supplier using GB-PPON ID PJVY-9952-JQGR.
Unpublished competition detail
99% confidenceInformation not supplied in the published notice.
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No tender count, bidder list, scoring, evaluation or award-rationale data is present.
Lot-level detail
99% confidenceLot 1 has no published title, description or standalone value.
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The lot record contains only ID 1 and status complete; the value is published at contract level.
SOURCE DATA LIMITATIONS
Information not supplied in the published notice
- The published notice data does not provide the number or identity of other bidders, evaluation scores, award rationale or savings.
- Lot 1 has no published title, description or individually allocated value.
- No published extension, option or renewal terms are supplied.
- The £41,250 value in the supplied opportunity summary has no stated value basis and differs from the published £41,139 net contract amount; both are reported without treating them as the same measure.
MARKET THEMES
Relevant award themes
Natural England contract awardGovernment Actuary's Departmentnature recovery researchNational Risk RegisterState of Natural Capital Reportresearch servicespublic procurement
COMMON QUESTIONS
About this award
Who won Natural England's nature recovery risk research contract?
Government Actuary's Department is the sole published supplier for award 1 and lot 1.
What is the contract value?
The published contract value is £41,139 excluding VAT and £49,366.80 including VAT.
When does the contract run?
The contract was signed on 30 September 2026 and runs from 13 October 2026 to 31 March 2027.
What is being commissioned?
Research to quantify how nature recovery could affect selected nature-related risks in the National Risk Register, informed by the State of Natural Capital Report.
ProcuraAxis award analysis supplements, but does not replace, the official award notice, contract data or procurement documents. “Awarded” does not by itself prove that a contract has been signed.